Reading the market: overround, liquidity and the spread
Three numbers tell you whether a market is worth your attention: the overround, the matched amount and the spread between back and lay. This lesson explains each one and what a thin market does to your bets.
Two markets can show the same price and be completely different places to bet. One has crores matched, a one-tick spread and prices that reflect thousands of opinions. The other has a few thousand rupees in it, a spread of ten ticks and a "price" that is one person's unmatched offer. Learning to tell them apart takes about a minute per market once you know where to look.
Overround
Add up the implied chances (1 / price) of every selection's best back price. On a liquid market the total is a little over 100%, perhaps 101% to 103%. The extra is the overround. Do the same with the lay prices and you get a little under 100%. The fair prices sit between the two.
A large overround, say 110% or more, means the back prices are poor: the crowd is not competing hard to offer them. That is usual in a thin market or hours before an event. It is a warning that whatever you back, you are taking a worse price than the event deserves.
Liquidity
Liquidity is money. Two figures show it: the matched amount for the market (how much has already been bet) and the amounts shown under each price (how much is waiting to be matched). A market with ₹2 crore matched and ₹50,000 at the best price will take a normal bet instantly. A market with ₹8,000 matched and ₹300 at the best price will not; your bet will be partly matched, or will sit unmatched, or will be matched at several worse prices.
Liquidity arrives late. Racing markets fill in the last minutes before the off, football markets in the hour before kick-off, cricket markets at the toss. A price seen the night before is usually not the market; it is an early offer.
The spread
The gap between the best back price and the best lay price is the spread. On a busy market it is one tick: 1.85 to 1.86. On a thin one it can be many: 1.80 to 2.10. A wide spread means that backing and then laying straight away would cost you a lot, that the "price" is uncertain, and that your unmatched offer in the middle might be the only sensible one there.
What a thin market does to you
- Your bet may not be matched, or only partly.
- You may be matched at a price that moves sharply the moment real money arrives, leaving you on the wrong side.
- A lay at a long price in a thin market is especially dangerous: the price is long partly because nobody wants to back it, and your liability is set by that price.
- Cashing out later may be impossible at a fair figure, because there is no one to hedge against.
A quick check before any bet
Matched amount, best-price amounts, spread, overround. Thirty seconds. If any of the four looks wrong, the sensible bet is no bet. Next: exchange vs sportsbook, which puts the two kinds of betting side by side.
Information only, 18+. Real-money online gaming is restricted in India: see the lesson on the law.
How the Horse racing markets are read
18+ only. This lesson is for information, not advice to bet. Responsible gambling.